Jawaad Mahmood in Tokyo

So now that pretty much everyone (except real estate agents) admits that there is a real estate bubble in certan markets, the question becomes “How does this affect Canada?”. Good question.

Before asking how it affects Canada, we need to ask how it affects the US. I’ve seen predictions of anything from a minor 1-2% drop in prices to catastrophic estimates of 40-50% collapses in some markets (I’m looking at you San Francisco). Clearly any depreciation of value will hurt people who “flip” houses – their entire business model (if you can call it that) is based on jacking up the price of a house through minor renovations, and selling quickly. While a bubble pops, buyers wait longer to buy and flippers are left holding onto the house (and making expensive debt payments). This can be catastrophic to the credit of a few people; just look at Casey Serin for a prime example of a person who would be brutally buried by the Real Estate bubble.

If the effect will only affect flippers, it would probably be a minor problem (at most). However, declining prices means declining house construction. Declining construction will affect a whole range of things (wood, etc..), not to mention damaging the employment figures in the US. Now, considering how much of the housing employment involves illegals or under-the-table payment, this is probably not going to be the biggest problem. The biggest problem is going to be effective slavery of homeowners.

On the surface, this is of zero real importance to people who own houses. After all, they can go on paying their mortgage and keep the house, they just will have to pay a little more for something worth a little less. However, the worst bubble-hit areas (SF Bay, etc..) might lose 50% of their value – you are talking about a place where a shack costs $550,000. Who is going to hold onto a $500,000 mortgage for a house worth $250,000 (and worth about $95,000 in a normal part of the US)? Add to this the fact that interest rates are no longer at record lows; most of these people do not have fixed rate mortgages, but rather use “exotic” mortgages like ARMs (adjustible-rate mortgages) that were based on outright fraudulent declaration of income. On top of that, a lot of people refinanced houses to buy rapidly depreciating assets like American SUVS. A series of defaults and bankruptcies will result, and other people will pay more for their house; and this will suck a lot of money out of the American economy.

So money gets sucked out of the American economy. How does that hurt us?

1. Less money being spent on buying our natural resources and processing them into finished goods that Americans would have bought. What, isn’t that like 80% of our economy?

2. American companies enter a cash-saving phase. You can look forward to them cutting jobs; and that means cutting foreign jobs too.

and, most importantly..

3. Our own bubble gets popped. I heard about 50 & 99 year loans being offered in Toronto and Vancouver; and now Scotiabank has a “0 down 100% loan”. Tell me that isn’t bubbly. Housing costs are comparitive; we are not going to spend more to live in buttsnort Tennesee than sunny California. The concept is ridiculous. Renting an apartment in Vancouver costs the same as renting one of equivalent size in Hawaii. Re-read that and ask me why, in an era of telecommuting, so many white-collar jobs need to stay in Vancouver? What value does a 4 month rainy season have compared to a year-round paradise? The bubble in that city is being artificially propped up by Asians, but why should they stay in Vancouver now that a lot of the economic instability in Hong Kong has passed? Ditto Toronto? (If and when this happens, you can look forward to the same effects in the US coming home to roost). It looks like some people are noticing the first stages of this already.

There is plenty of proof that things are on their way down. I look forward to buying a house in 3 years with my cash savings, but I just hope I still have a job when 3 years rolls around :/

Two kinds of people in the world.

The first pretends he does things out of intellect, which in reality stems from an emotional need for self-affirmation.

The other just does and doesn’t worry about it.

見えないね。。

It is, perhaps inevitable, that religious people place gay marriage at the top of a list of things that irritate them. This is inevitable, as most religious texts (my own included) condemn the practice of homosexuality. Having failed in stopping the normalization of gay relationships, the gun is trained onto gay marriages. “Unacceptable!” they cry. “Marriage is between a man and a woman!” they bray. Foolishness; if two men can have a relationship, then they can get married. Marriage nowadays is merely a social and legal formality. (I might have a different view if Gays were to ever, for example, to change laws to force religious communities to carry out religious marriages of homosexuals.)

As a Canadian, I have to accept the social contract – and that involves tolerating the act of homosexuality. Until enough Canadians decide otherwise, I abide by that. As a result, it is inevitable that I tolerate secular homosexual marriage. It is ridiculous to posture otherwise; on what logical, scientific basis can we reject the state recognization of a relation which is permitted under law?

My use of the word “tolerate” might imply some sort of hatred towards Gays. This is not true. As incongruous as it seems for a Muslim, I do not have a problem with homosexuals personally. It is analogous in to how I don’t have problems with Israelis, nor with any other person (unless they directly infringe on my rights, like the border guard who decided to read my diary). My problem lies at a level far beyond the individual; I fear the collective end-result of homosexuality.

Homosexuality is not good for society, for obvious reasons that we never trot out. A lot of people are blinded to the force of history, and history does not side with groups of people that stop reproducing. Take a look at my native Quebec. Quebec is one of the most homosexual-friendly populations in Canada (already one of the nations most accepting of homosexuality in the western hemisphere). Quebec’s birth rate is also horribly low, and is going to cause significant problems in the province. Don’t believe me? Here, take a look.

This problem is, of course, is not solely due to homosexuals. Heterosexuals who abort babies, and decadent heterosexuals who avoid parental responsibility because they are somehow entitled to a lifestyle that they can’t afford (which explains the indebtedness of the province) means that our Western civilization has a limited life span. Capitalism is based on expansion – what happens when expansion stops?

Look, I don’t like this argument, because I’m a Biologist. I know that overpopulation and depleted resources will eventually be a problem. However, our society is capitalist. Not socialist; capitalist. The only break from capitalism we get is the fact that poor people do not starve to death on the streets. In a capitalist system, it is inevitable that healthy growing populations will overtake populations that don’t. Examine the quick ascendance of China once it embraced capitalism. Contrast that with our relative stagnation, and ask yourself, how can we grow at all when our population will be too busy supporting the elderly and old debts?

Europe and Japan (in their current form) are doomed. Canada has a chance to get out of it because of its capacity to serve as a model UN, of sorts – our culture is still fluid and accepting of others. Europe and Japan, in contrast, are defined by distinct cultural idiosyncacies, and their rich economy. Japan barely managed to escape the deflationary pressures of the housing bubble from the 80s; how will it escape the brutal decline when there are less and less children/young adults who will buy their mass-produced crap? On top of this, their culture cannot survive extended immigration; are you going to tell me that Pakistanis are going to somehow adopt the hard-working attitude of Post-WW2 japan, which was even abandoned by contemporary (decadent) Japanese society? (The cynic in me says “Mind you they will adopt everything else, including tossing religion to the side and the sexualized society”.) Europe is in much the same straits; Denmark is just digging its grave by pissing on Muslims. In 50 years when they are a country of 90 year olds and spoiled kids, how are they going to manage society?

How does this relate to Homosexual marriage?

Homosexual marriage is an inevitable matter of social justice if society tolerates homosexuality. Any society which denies these rights is unfair to law-abiding citizens. Those who say otherwise are just trying to hide their prejudices. However, homosexuality is, and has always been, bad for society. Heterosexuals that do not reproduce, or abort their children without need, are as well. However, on the scale of problems, this is far behind the truth that there is a spoiled materialistic attitude which will bankrupt and destroy this country. It is much like some Muslims blame Jewish conspiracies for their problems; I’m sure the Mossad does contribute something to their problems, but the vast majority of problems are self-inflicted. Similarly, Gay marriage, while a nagging issue, should be nowhere near the top of the list of problems which we must resolve as a society.